The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

Sunny, dry, and warmer-than-normal conditions will prevail the next several days as high pressure aloft produces subsidence (sinking air motion) and circulates dry northwesterly flow across Arizona.

Early next week, a weak upper-level trough will move across Nevada and southern Utah. This will bring more subtropical air across Arizona with enough humidity and instability ahead of the trough for perhaps a slight chance of rain showers or thunderstorms Sunday to Monday. Temperatures will drop back to normal over the weekend, and breezy conditions will also develop in association with the passing trough.

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

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Official National Weather Service forecast