A cut-off low circulating off the California Coast will direct southwesterly flow aloft across Arizona for the next several days and will draw a moist subtropical airmass into Arizona before moving across the state sometime between Wednesday evening and Thursday. Forecast models differ on the strength of the system and the timing, but there is general agreement that there will be a good chance of showers on Wednesday evening – Thursday. There could be thunderstorms during this period with locally heavy rain and small hail. Precipitation totals could exceed 0.5” in some locations.
Also, expect a gradual cooling trend and breezy conditions Tuesday – Thursday, with slight warming returning for this coming weekend.
The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
For more information on the degree program, refer to the following URL:
Official National Weather Service forecast: