Forecast Update

03 March 2015   Dr. Curtis James
Partial clearing expected.

The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).

Weather Discussion:

As you can see, rain is changing over to snow as the surface cold front moves towards Prescott this morning. Temperatures have dropped because of the advancing of the cold front and the moderate to heavy rainfall the past couple of hours. Expect rain/snow mixed today with the possibility of 1-3” of snow accumulation by this evening. Temperatures will not drop below freezing during the day, but roads may still become a bit slushy.

Expect partial clearing this afternoon or evening, but with some lingering snow showers. Some additional light snow accumulation is possible tonight and temperatures will likely drop below freezing, so there could be some some slick areas on the roads for tomorrow’s commute.

C. James

Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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